World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: When it comes to growth, better may prove to be the enemy of good

- Developed countries – Risk? Think American
- Emerging countries – Stretching the elastic
- Oil – Geopolitical risk to rise in 2019
- Monetary policy – Seeking the right dosage
- Interest rates –The “false” fear of inflation
- Exchange rates –The softening of the dollar, past, present and future
- Economic and financial forecasts

En résumé

The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary policy. The natural slowing of the European cycle and the consolidation of growth in the emerging sphere can thus continue, subject to two conditions: no excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and no all-out trade war. These two risks do not seem imminent, however, and a ‘reasonable' amount of optimism seems to be in order still.