Italy – Monthly News Digest

Italy – Monthly News Digest

In summary

The lights turn red. Figuring out Christmas under COVID-19. Strong rebound in Q3. The calm before the storm? Vaccines: the light at the end of the tunnel.

Italy – Monthly News Digest

Unsurprisingly, the business-cycle lights are gradually turning from green to red. What could have taken the form of a slump after the strong summertime recovery is expected to turn into a full-blown downturn, once the effects of the second lockdown have been factored in. Mobility data indicate that the economic decline is less than what was recorded during the April shock, yet still enough to jam up the machinery of the recovery, thus further delaying the normalisation of the situation. Economic stakeholders’ perception remains partially detached from the reality of the pandemic and lockdown. The business confidence index continued to improve in October (rising from 91.3 to 92.9), both in industry and in retail. Household confidence, meanwhile, saw a dip from 103.3 to 102.0. This pessimism can be seen in anticipations of the country’s economic situation and in the unemployment trend, while assessments of one’s own personal situation are less negative.

Sofia TOZY, Economiste