The lurking BEAST: the ECB's risk scenario and its implications

The lurking BEAST: the ECB's risk scenario and its implications
  • Believe in a better future, but flag up the risks
  • The ECB and macroprudential stress
  • Dosage and withdrawal: the challenges of tomorrow and beyond

In resume

The consensus eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2021 has been upgraded in December: at 4.8% it is still very optimistic, though the consensus forecast for 2022 has been downgraded slightly, anticipating growth of 3.1%. The OECD, on the other hand, is more cautious on the short-term outlook. In its December forecasts, it projected growth of 3.6% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022, with GDP returning to pre-crisis levels at the end of 2022.