Italy – 2021-2022 Scenario: the year of recovery
- Focus: Delta variant looms
- Recent economic trends
- Outline of our scenario
- Focus: recovery plan
There's an air of optimism blowing through Italy even as the Delta variant appears to be battering Europe. Will 2021 mark a turnaround for Bel Paese? After a second quarter when growth was fettered by lingering pandemic restrictions in April, all the elements are in place for a summer economic rebound.
Italy's industrial recovery is gathering pace, buoyed by surging international demand. The industrial output index rose 1.3% in Q1 2021, leaving behind a gloomy fourth quarter 2020. At 1.8%, the bounce in April was even more pronounced, taking industrial output above pre-crisis levels. While all sectors saw improvements, capital goods were particularly upbeat. After contracting at the end of the year, construction recovered rapidly in Q1. And, despite dipping slightly in April, construction trends continue firmly on the up and up. The sector's output index beat the record performance registered in January 2020 by more than 5% in the first quarter, making it a growth driver after several years of sluggish progress.Sofia TOZY, Economiste