Italy – 2021-2022 Scenario: Exiting the third wave
- Third wave of pandemic and third lockdown
- Recent economic trends
- The basis of our scenario
- Public finances
The third epidemic wave has not spared Italy, which entered a new round of containment. This outbreak should weigh down on economic growth early in the year, leading to a slight drop in the forecast for 2021.
The economic data show a better profile than expected. Despite the tightening of lockdown measures beginning in mid-March, the productive sector continued to show a degree of resilience. For the third month in a row, industrial output increased, rising 0.2% in February. It leaves a 0.8% overhang for the first quarter. This trend is confirmed by Confindustria. Despite a slight contraction in March, industrial output, according to the General Confederation of Italian Industry, indicated a 1% rise in the first quarter; this uptick was strengthened by the favourable trend in demand from foreign markets. Exports saw another increase in February, though a modest one at 0.3%, after 2.3% in January, leaving a 1.3% overhang for the quarter.Sofia TOZY, Economiste