Spain – 2022-2023 Scenario: under pressure at the beginning of the year
Recent economic trends
Outline of our scenario
Focus: inflation on the rise
Economic activity in Spain continued to rally in the fourth quarter of 2021, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous quarter. Spanish GDP grew by 2.2% qoq in Q4 (2.6% in Q3). This expansion can be attributed to the positive contribution of net foreign demand (1 percentage point - pp) and to the contribution of domestic demand (1.2 pp). In the fourth quarter, Spain’s GDP was 3.8% below the level reached at the end of 2019. We forecast GDP growth of 4.6% in 2022 and 3.6% in 2023, which are lower than our forecasts made in the last fiscal year (5.6% and 4.1% respectively).
We expect GDP to grow to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2022. In the short term, private-sector consumption will be moderated, by rising uncertainty, further interruptions in supply chains and, above all, by the decline in purchasing power following the rise in inflation. We anticipate growth in private-sector consumption of 3.9% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023.Ticiano BRUNELLO, Economist