Italy – 2023-2024 Scenario: a transition year

Italy – 2023-2024 Scenario
  • Summary
  • Recent economic trends 
  • The outline of our scenario

In summary

Despite inflation among the highest in Europe, Italy avoided the slowdown recorded in the Eurozone as a whole in the first quarter. However, it will be difficult for it to be spared by the deterioration in the European and international environment. Growth in the last two years has been marked by large magnitudes and high volatility in the contributions to demand, due to both the post-pandemic recovery and the absorption of the energy shocks. This phase seems to be over, with most of the components of demand having exceeded pre-pandemic levels. As a result, GDP growth rates over the forecast horizon should be more in line with historical averages. Growth is estimated at 1.2% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024.