France – 2023-2024 Scenario: activity buckles but does not break
- 2023.24.04
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- Summary
- Recent trends in activity
- Our scenario for 2023-2024
- Focus – Inflation: a slow decline in store
In summary
Inflation may have snatched away income gains, but French growth has held up well so far. Consumption dipped at the end of the year, particularly in the food sector (impacted by a 15% year-on-year price increase), but growth remained just barely positive in Q4 2022. Full-year growth came out at 2.6% in 2022 after +6.8% in 2021. But it will slow in 2023 to 0.6% before rising slightly to 1.1% in 2024.
Inflation most likely peaked in February. It is expected to remain high throughout the second quarter and core inflation will continue to rise as cost increases continue to be passed on to selling prices. However, growth in producer prices and imported goods prices has already slowed significantly. And with no signs of a price-wage loop on the horizon, inflation should slow in the second half of 2023 and in 2024.
Pierre BENADJAOUD, Economiste