France – 2023-2024 Scenario: activity buckles but does not break

Inflation may have snatched away income gains, but French growth has held up well so far. Consumption dipped at the end of the year, particularly in the food sector (impacted by a 15% year-on-year price increase), but growth remained just barely positive in Q4 2022. Full-year growth came out at 2.6% in 2022 after +6.8% in 2021. But it will slow in 2023 to 0.6% before rising slightly to 1.1% in 2024.