Italy – 2023-2024 Scenario: a year of growth despite the shock
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- Recent economic trends
- The basis of our scenario
- Focus: labour market
- Focus: public finances
Shocks and changes dominated once again in 2022. After the euphoria of 2021 and record growth, 2022 began amid price and supply pressures, thought at the time to be transitory. The invasion of Ukraine in February and the ensuing energy crisis quickly created a new challenge for Italy. As in Germany, the war in Ukraine highlighted the vulnerability of Italy's energy strategy and the country's susceptibility to soaring gas prices.
Despite annual inflation of 8%, Italian growth held up well, with three consecutive quarters of growth. While momentum in 2021 was driven mainly by investment and, above all, the construction sector, consumption has been the main growth driver since second-quarter 2022.Sofia TOZY, Economiste