Spain – 2023-2024 Scenario: The end of the rebound
- 2023.18.01
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- Summary
- Recent economic trends
- Outline of our scenario
- Focus: outlook for cumulative household savings
En résumé
Uncertainty will remain very high in 2023, although economic activity could demonstrate greater momentum from next spring. Throughout the year, a gradual moderation in energy and food prices is expected, as well as a very gradual reduction in bottlenecks and the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine. In addition, a more contained shift from imported inflation to core inflation will limit the negative impact of inflation on activity. Our growth forecast for 2023 is an annual average of 0.8%.
Various factors are expected to put downward pressure on the economic growth outlook in the coming quarters, including persistent inflation, a decline in economic confidence and severe ongoing uncertainty (some aspects are particularly influenced by the consequences of the current energy crisis and the armed conflict in Ukraine).
Ticiano BRUNELLO, Economist