Italy – 2023-2024 Scenario: 2023, the year of slowdown
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- Recent economic trends
- The basis of our scenario
- Focus: public finances
2023 appears to be looking brighter. Lower-than-expected gas market tensions should support a faster-than-expected decline in energy prices, leading to lower inflation, as well as the recovery of both household and business confidence, have removed the risk of a recession and allowed an upward revision of the growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%.
Did the energy shock peak in fourth-quarter 2022? Economic indicators would suggest so, with the long contraction initiated at the beginning of the war in Ukraine having peaked between September and October 2022. This trend was confirmed by GDP figures at the end of the year. After holding firm for three quarters, GDP dipped 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Despite a contraction at the end of the year, Italian GDP rose 3.7% in 2022. The 2023 growth forecast has been revised slightly upwards to 0.6%.Sofia TOZY, Economiste