Spain – 2023-2024 Scenario: Sluggish growth returns
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- Recent economic trends
- Outline of our scenario
- Focus: inflation
Stronger-than-expected data for the first quarter present upside risks to our forecasts for the first half of 2023, offset by greater uncertainty over the second half of the year. The impact of tighter financial conditions could prove stronger and further curb growth. Our growth forecasts are 1.2% in 2023 and 1% in 2024.
We expect inflation to average 4.5% in 2023 and fall to 2.4% in 2024, as the decline in energy prices spreads to the other components. Regarding the non-volatile components of the consumer price index and food, we expect stickier inflation in 2023.Ticiano BRUNELLO, Economist