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Geoeconomics – Has geopolitics tamed markets?
It may appear surprising that the spectacular abduction by the United States of Nicolás Maduro – a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter – has unleashed only the faintest of financial shockwaves. Not only did markets easily absorb this event, they immediately wanted to know what would happen next. There has been no massive flight to safe assets, no financial dislocation, no lasting pressure on...
Egypt – Retrospective of a currency crisis: how to build confidence?
The Egyptian economy, though weakened, is recovering from a two-year external liquidity crisis. The crisis is a reminder of the extent to which countries with debt and dependent on external financing are vulnerable to investor confidence. Thanks to substantial funding from the United Arab Emirates and the IMF, the country's external liquidity risk has dipped sharply. But this is not a long-term blank...
Geopolitics – Emotional warfare permeates us all: we should learn to understand it
Public opinion has always been one of the battlefields in power struggles. Now, though, thanks to a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the "infobesity" (information overload) of what Joseph Nye called the Information Age, the role of public opinion is strategically more important. Who gets to decide who the enemy is? Governments or public opinion? The Global North or the Global South? Who will...