The powerful political and geopolitical consequences of the conflict in the Middle East will extend far beyond the more immediate ones that this scenario aims to identify. This conflict is not an isolated incident, but rather it is part of a series of supply shocks (the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, Houthi attacks) that highlight critical dependencies on a few key chokepoints (eg, commodities...

The residential real-estate market in France has been severely impacted by the sharp rise in mortgage rates since 2022. While the decline in housing sales was quick to materialize, prices in existing properties adjusted with a lag in transactions. On the new housing market, while sales are at historic lows, price declines have been more contained.