France – 2023-2024 Scenario: a smooth recovery despite headwinds

The French economy is making a soft landing following the post-COVID economic recovery in 2021 and the adverse effects of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. The country has avoided a technical recession, with growth of 0.0% (qoq) in first-quarter 2023 and 0.5% in the second quarter. Growth is expected to be modest in the second half of 2023 as the effects of monetary tightening peak, but the rebound in household consumption linked to disinflation will enable gradual economic growth in 2024. Annual growth is expected to be 0.9% in 2023 then 1.0% in 2024.