France – Is the French economy stalling since the snap election call?

France – Is the French economy stalling since the snap election call?

 

  • Update on our 2024 French Growth Forecast
  • French growth stalling: a risk to our scenario...
  • ... But a clear lack of evidence so far

In summary

A month after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called the election, some signs of a French economy stalling have arguably appeared. At least this is what Bank of France Governor François Villeroy mentioned recently. In practice, this is fully debatable. Although previous episodes of political uncertainty in other countries have triggered downward growth revisions (eg, Greece in 2015, Italy in 2018), we do not see any hard evidence of this in France so far.