Spain –2024-2025 Scenario: robust growth continues
- 2024.24.07
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- Scenario highlights
- Robust growth continues
- Latest economic news
- Households
- Businesses
- International trade
- Focus – Tourism
- Risks
- The scenario in figures
In summary
The Spanish economy managed to maintain a robust growth rate at the beginning of the year despite numerous unfavourable factors, including the weakness of the Eurozone economies, persistently high inflation, and the impact of the rise in interest rates, which were expected to peak in first-quarter 2024. The strong performance resulted from several key factors, with positive labour-market momentum, persistently dynamic immigration flows, and sound international tourism data, which once again exceeded expectations and explain the strong contribution of external demand to growth. On a less positive note, growth in domestic demand remained more modest.
First-quarter data, together with a slightly more favourable situation overall, have led us to revise our GDP growth forecasts upwards to 2.4% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025. We expect domestic demand to take over as the key growth driver. A lower contribution from public consumption would be more than offset by a gradual recovery in both private consumption and investment.
After an exceptional year for tourism in Spain in 2023, with record-setting interna-tional arrivals, spending, overnight stays and domestic tourism, the data available thus far in 2024 confirm the best start to the year in the history of the sector. This impressive performance is also reflected in an increase in the surplus of the balance of tourism services, which reached 4.2% of GDP in March 2024, compared with 3.7% a year earlier (12-month cumulative data). Tourism exports account for over half of the improvement in Spain’s current account balance over the past year.
Ticiano BRUNELLO, Economist