Europe – 2025-2026 Scenario: European economies in a waiting and transition phase

The past quarter has contributed to heighten uncertainty over the growth trajectories of the major economies, which are facing a global shock to confidence and a reorganisation of their relative competitiveness. The American exceptionalism of growth that has long been above potential, even under the influence of a restrictive monetary policy, has been called into question by the new trade policy, which is acting as a negative shock, leading to a slowdown in growth.

Although the European economy will be negatively affected, the asymmetrical nature of the shock makes it less vulnerable. In addition, the desire for greater strategic autonomy on the part of the European economies is taking shape in concrete measures to increase spending on infrastructure and defence, which, by offsetting the negative impact of the trade shock, are putting the Eurozone on an upward growth trajectory, defying the inexorability of a decline in potential growth. All the more reason to put forward the hypothesis of an “European exceptionalism”.