Mexico – An overview of three decades of free trade
- 2025.05.03
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- Mexico's original intentions: laudable
- The most obvious effects of free trade agreements
- Economic and social impact: unfulfilled promises
- Trump's new demands and the Mexico Plan
- Graphics booklet
In summary
D. Trump's return to the White House and his tariff threats against Mexico and Canada, suspended until March, could jeopardise the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), a trade agreement signed in 2018 that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020. NAFTA, the first free trade agreement between developed and emerging countries, came into force in 1994, creating the world's largest trading zone. Thirty years on, without claiming to be exhaustive, what assessment can be made of NAFTA for Mexico?
It is difficult to isolate the effects of NAFTA from those of other Mexican policies and global trends, but we can attempt a rapid assessment with the help of a few key studies and statistics. Assessing NAFTA's impact "fairly" also means judging it against its original objectives.
Studies on the macro-economic impact of NAFTA all point to a moderately positive outcome. Without a relay in the form of a "proactive" public policy, the treaty alone has not been enough to stimulate Mexican economic growth: the gains have not spread. The initial conditions have had a strong influence on the current results, and Mexican growth has, in the end, been close to that of its peers. The results are far from expectations, and long-standing problems such as unemployment, poverty and social and geographical inequalities remain.
Catherine LEBOUGRE & Jorge APARICIO-LOPEZ (intern), Economists - Latin America