There were already many risks, both economic and geopolitical, influencing our scenario, both in terms of cyclical inflections and structural aspects. Compounding these risks, Israel’s attack on Iran on 13 June constitutes an unprecedented escalation in terms of its scale and its severity. This act marks a strategic turning point for the region.

Our scenario, already rocked by recently fickle...

Economic activity declined slightly in France in Q4 2024 (-0.1% q/q), after +0.4% in Q3. This slight decline can be explained by a negative backlash after the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games (OPG), which supported activity by +0.2 percentage point (pp) in Q3. Annual growth therefore stood at 1.1% in 2024, stable compared to 2023.
In Q1 2025, growth is expected to be low but positive (+0.2% q/q), and...

The Italian economy proved resilient in 2024 in an already unpromising international environment, with better-than-expected growth of 0.7%. But in early 2025 the economic outlook is sending out more mixed signals. Consumer and business confidence is weakening and uncertainties are mounting, with persistent geopolitical tensions and threats of tariff hikes from the United States. All of which puts the...

The Spanish economy began 2025 with greater momentum than its European partners. In 2024, GDP grew by 3.2%, increasing by 0.8% in Q4, supported by consumption and investment. The fundamentals are solid: a current account surplus for the 13th year, private debt limited to 125.1% of GDP (vs. 153.5% in the eurozone) and public debt down to 101.8%. The net international investment position also improved...

A transatlantic rift has opened. It had been incorporated into our forecast last December in the form of a downward revision to growth to take account of the negative impact of the rise in tariffs on steel and aluminium to 25%, as well as an alignment of the average US tariff with that of the EU. into a downward revision to growth of 0.2 percentage points (pp) as a direct result of lower exports and a...

Stupefaction was the reaction to Donald Trump's “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. Firstly, because the tariffs – which Trump claims are sucking the life out of the US economy – are perplexing when compared with those applied. Secondly, because the tariffs announced (including the strangely calculated reciprocal tariffs) exceed what had been anticipated and are likely to be further tightened. Finally...

Economic activity in France quickened in Q3 2024, with quarterly growth coming in at 0.4%, compared with 0.2% in Q1 and Q2. This uptick is explained by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games, estimated to have added 0.2 percentage points to Q3 growth. At the end of Q3, carry-over growth for 2024 was 1.1%. 

The economy is not expected to have grown at all in Q4 2024 due to the boost from the Paris...

The downward revision of our forecasts for the German economy is in line with the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% contraction in GDP in 2024. Activity in the first three quarters of 2024 was supported in particular by public consumption, despite limited budgetary resources. Household consumption, on the other hand, weighed on growth. Households switched to savings because of low consumer confidence in a...

Facing the relative slowdown in the US economy, growth in the Eurozone accelerated slightly over the summer, although still at a much lower rate than in the United States (0.9% year-on-year).

The upturn in household consumption seen over the summer bodes well for slightly stronger growth next year. The latest information on investment does not plead in favour of a marked acceleration. We have revised our...

The UK economy is on course to slow sharply in H2-24. Real GDP was stable in Q3 against our expectation for an increase (0.3% QoQ) after 0.4% QoQ in Q2. Business surveys deteriorated during Q4. Furthermore, financial conditions have tightened since the Autumn Budget 2024 and quite meaningfully so since the beginning 2025: gilt yields have risen sharply (around 60bp since October) and sterling has...