Italy – 2024-2025 Scenario: 2024, alea jacta est

The Italian economy proved resilient in 2023, growing 0.9% despite an unfavourable international environment, persistently high inflation and difficult financing conditions owing to rising interest rates. But challenges remain and the outlook for 2024 is still mixed, with growth expected at 0.8%. Italy's growth prospects are undermined by global economic uncertainties, with the slowdown in the world's two largest economies, as well as political uncertainties, with several key elections on the horizon.

But encouraging signs are emerging, particularly in industry. And although its effects are still being felt, the inflationary period is behind us now, the annual rate currently standing at 1.4%, paving the way for an easing of monetary policy. Investment and construction continue to be bolstered by an overhang effect and could benefit from an upside risk linked to stimulus plan support, even though budgetary policy is constrained by substantial imbalances in public finances.

Household consumption remains the big unknown in this scenario. Any recovery remains uncertain despite a handful positive indicators in the second half of the year, the impact of which will be felt more in 2025, with a growth forecast of 0.9%.