This scenario is set against a backdrop of military, political and economic uncertainty that makes forecasting the scale of shocks and their macroeconomic impact particularly risky. But one thing is certain: the tightening of external constraints on the Eurozone, which is facing more volatile prices on global energy markets. Whilst, unlike in 2022, the risk is less one of shortages, its vulnerability to global prices has increased and the Eurozone is no longer on the smooth disinflationary path it was on before the war in the Middle East. Even if the scenario is shifting towards a medium-to-long-term risk linked to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, recession and persistent inflation are relegated to adverse scenarios. Nevertheless, the energy supply shock and its inflationary consequences are amplified by a combination of potential constraints on supply capacity, tighter financial conditions and growing uncertainty: a combination that runs counter to our pre-war scenario of accelerating investment. The solid economic and financial position of private sector players, coupled with a broadly neutral and locally (particularly in Germany) expansionary fiscal policy stance, should nevertheless ensure growth of 0.8% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027.