Economic activity slowed in 2025, whilst remaining resilient in a context of high uncertainty and rising trade tensions. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already resulted in higher energy prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Under the assumption of a very gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without a return to normal conditions, consumer prices would accelerate on average in 2026, before inflation falls back below 2% in 2027. As in the previous year, economic activity would increase by 0.9% on average in 2026, benefiting from already solid growth carryover. Growth would remain at a similar level in 2027, caught between the opposing effects of the relative decline in energy prices and the past rise in interest rates.