1. Spain – Strong domestic demand in a deteriorating global environment

2. Economic activity remains robust despite international tensions

3. International context

4. Significant government support in the face of inflationary pressures

5. Growth remains resilient thanks to internal buffers and despite a more challenging environment

6. The labour market is expected to continue to provide significant support to the economy

7. Exports of services remain resilient

8. Public finances

9. Economic & Financial Forecasts
 

The Spanish economy continues to show relatively robust growth in the first half of 2026, supported by private consumption, investment and a dynamic services sector. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran is gradually undermining the macroeconomic environment, driven by rising energy prices, a slowdown in global trade and tighter financial conditions. Against this backdrop, domestic demand remains the main driver of economic activity, underpinned by a still-robust labour market, high savings rates and fiscal measures designed to cushion the impact of inflation. Exports of services also continue to play a stabilising role, particularly through tourism and digital activities. Despite these supportive factors, economic activity is expected to slow gradually over the coming quarters, whilst inflation is likely to remain persistently higher than anticipated at the start of the year.

Ticiano BRUNELLO

The Spanish economy retains solid fundamentals and greater resilience than many other European economies. However, the combination of a prolonged energy shock, a less favourable trade environment and more persistent inflation is likely to lead to a gradual normalisation of the pace of growth over the coming quarters.

Ticiano
 
BRUNELLO
Economist