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 •  ECO Publication

China – Will the Fire Horse balk at the jump or run at full gallop? How will it affect China’s five-year plan?

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As the Year of the Fire Horse begins on 17 February, what can we expect from the Chinese economy in the coming months? In Chinese astrology, the sign of the horse is associated with strength and the natural desire to move forward, while the element of fire reflects energy and passion. After the Year of the Wood Snake (careful thought and subtlety), will the Year of the Fire Horse bring rapid change, bold...

 •  ECO Publication

South Korea: a year after the political crisis, markets are buying the promise of stability

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On 3 December 2024, South Korea was thrown into political crisis. Struggling in parliament, where he had lost his majority, President Yoon declared martial law in a move he claimed was justified by North Korean and Chinese interference. 

The immediate mass mobilisation of opposition members of parliament and civil society put a stop to this attempted power grab and paved the way for proceedings that...

Corée du Sud : un an après la crise politique, les marchés achètent les promesses de stabilité
 •  ECO Publication

Fog over New Delhi

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India is shrouded in fog: the fog of pollution, which is making New Delhi increasingly unliveable; the fog of terrorism, with tensions with Pakistan triggering a number of attacks; and the fog of trade talks with the United States, which seem to have been at a standstill for weeks.

New Delhi dans le brouillard
 •  ECO Publication

China – Facing the business cycle: when planning meets doubt

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Chinese growth is slowing down and consensus remains sceptical about the government's official targets (5% in 2025). Far from the promises of rebalancing, the economy is increasingly shifting towards an export-driven industrial model rather than domestic consumption. Deflation, a consequence of structural imbalances (demographics, overcapacity, real estate crisis), is weakening corporate profitability...

 •  ECO Publication

China – Growth is a "positive surprise", but serious questions remain

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China has released fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 growth figures and announced that its 5% target has been met. The consensus of economists, who were not expecting such a performance, found these numbers – even thought they were positive – "surprising".

While China achieving its growth target is nothing new, the slowdown in a number of sectors (e.g. real estate and consumer goods) and the deflationary...

 •  ECO Publication

China is not 1980s Japan and this is both good news and a big problem

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Real estate crisis, demographic problems, trade tensions with the United States, concerning debt levels: multiple comparisons can be drawn between China today and 1980s Japan, sparking fears of a "Japanification" scenario for the Chinese economy. Such a scenario is characterised by a slowdown in economic activity caused by a drop in private consumption, the advent of a negative, deflation-fuelling price...