Despite Donald Trump’s declarations and promises, the war with Iran rumbles on, tipping Asia’s economies into an era of uncertainty that is very difficult to manage.

China has released its Q1 growth figures, sending a clear message to the rest of the world: the Iran crisis has thus far had no impact on Chinese economic activity. Year-on-year growth came in at 5% in Q1, up from 4.5% in the final quarter of 2025. These figures beat consensus expectations, which saw growth remaining below 5%, and enabled China to make progress towards its 2026 growth target (“between 4...

Growth in the Spanish economy remains solid at the start of 2026, although it is showing signs of moderating in a more uncertain international environment. Domestic demand – underpinned by private consumption and investment – remains the main driver of economic activity, buoyed by a labour market that remains dynamic and by the impetus of public policies. At the same time, the external sector is making a...

Economic activity slowed in 2025, whilst remaining resilient in a context of high uncertainty and rising trade tensions. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already resulted in higher energy prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Under the assumption of a very gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without a return to normal conditions, consumer prices would accelerate on average in...

This scenario is set against a backdrop of military, political and economic uncertainty that makes forecasting the scale of shocks and their macroeconomic impact particularly risky. But one thing is certain: the tightening of external constraints on the Eurozone, which is facing more volatile prices on global energy markets. Whilst, unlike in 2022, the risk is less one of shortages, its vulnerability to...

The UK economy, still bearing the marks of the 2022 energy crisis, is confronting a fresh external supply shock stemming from the war in the Middle East. The economic situation prior to this conflict was fragile: GDP growth was still very modest in the second half of 2025; the unemployment rate had risen; and a surge in inflation eroded the household purchasing power against a backdrop of moderating wage...

Open and tightly integrated into international trade, Asian countries are exposed to the disruption caused by the ongoing conflict in the Gulf. Most of them have reacted quickly, worrying about the impact of the war on energy supplies and trade flows. 

According to Eurostat data, France’s GDP per capita, measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, comes in at 98% of the European average – fixed at 100 – putting it below the latter for the third year running. This is frequently portrayed in the media as a sign that the French economy is “stalling”. 

Like 2001 was for China (the year it joined the WTO), will 2026 turn out to have been a pivotal year in India’s trading history? The country, now the world’s fifth largest economy in GDP terms, remains a minor player in international trade (17th in terms of exports, accounting for 1.8% of total world exports). Due to a rather protectionist stance focused on its domestic market, particularly in...