Against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, but with the US trade fog lifting, growth rates are expected to remain steady or even pick up. Fiscal measures will contribute to this resilience in a variety of ways: from tax cuts in the US to aggressive fiscal policy in Japan, via Keynesian stimulus in the UK and spending linked to the NGEU plan on the one hand and the German recovery on the...

On 3 December 2024, South Korea was thrown into political crisis. Struggling in parliament, where he had lost his majority, President Yoon declared martial law in a move he claimed was justified by North Korean and Chinese interference. 

The immediate mass mobilisation of opposition members of parliament and civil society put a stop to this attempted power grab and paved the way for proceedings that...

India is shrouded in fog: the fog of pollution, which is making New Delhi increasingly unliveable; the fog of terrorism, with tensions with Pakistan triggering a number of attacks; and the fog of trade talks with the United States, which seem to have been at a standstill for weeks.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, presented her 2025 Autumn Budget to Parliament on Wednesday 26 November, which had been eagerly awaited by the markets. In line with expectations, this Budget provides for a further significant increase in taxes and duties of GBP26bn over the next five years, following a GBP32bn increase announced in the October 2024 Budget. The Autumn Budget also includes...

Against a backdrop of global growth that has been surprisingly resilient, Western European economies are showing resilience, albeit at varying rates. The economies at the core of the Eurozone, particularly Germany, are showing sluggish growth at best, while the Iberian economies are being buoyed by strong private consumption and investment, the latter supported by funds from the European Recovery and...

In an international environment that is still as anxiety-provoking as ever, uncertainties remain, numerous and multifaceted. Nevertheless, hoping that those emanating from US economic policy will calm down (and that at least tariffs will stabilise), the scenario is staying the course. It is characterised by a slowdown without recession in the US, followed by an acceleration in 2026, a continued recovery...

Chinese growth is slowing down and consensus remains sceptical about the government's official targets (5% in 2025). Far from the promises of rebalancing, the economy is increasingly shifting towards an export-driven industrial model rather than domestic consumption. Deflation, a consequence of structural imbalances (demographics, overcapacity, real estate crisis), is weakening corporate profitability...

The past quarter has contributed to heighten uncertainty over the growth trajectories of the major economies, which are facing a global shock to confidence and a reorganisation of their relative competitiveness. The American exceptionalism of growth that has long been above potential, even under the influence of a restrictive monetary policy, has been called into question by the new trade policy, which...

There were already many risks, both economic and geopolitical, influencing our scenario, both in terms of cyclical inflections and structural aspects. Compounding these risks, Israel’s attack on Iran on 13 June constitutes an unprecedented escalation in terms of its scale and its severity. This act marks a strategic turning point for the region.

Our scenario, already rocked by recently fickle...

Back in February, François Bayrou's government managed to pass a thorny but unconvincing budget for 2025. Since then, you have rightfully forgotten about this topic: speculation about a potential new snap election (and tariffs, of course) took centre stage recently.
However, public finances remain the most critical and structural sticking point in French politics right now. Nothing has changed since last...