As a matter of fact, 2026 is off to a more promising start, despite a bout of turbulence on the international stage through March. Growth has proved more dynamic than expected. The carry-over for 2026 growth has been revised upwards, and first-quarter domestic demand remains robust, in both household consumption and investment. In such a volatile geopolitical environment, avoiding the worst has become...

Control over industrial value chains now sits at the heart of competitiveness, technological leadership and strategic sovereignty for the world's leading economies. European reindustrialisation rests on three inseparable conditions: bold strategic choices, organised cooperation despite its contradictions, and a capacity for innovation closely linked to the industry. Exploring an industrial model based on...

The Spanish economy continues to show relatively robust growth in the first half of 2026, supported by private consumption, investment and a dynamic services sector. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran is gradually undermining the macroeconomic environment, driven by rising energy prices, a slowdown in global trade and tighter financial conditions. Against this backdrop, domestic...

The beginning of the year was encouraging for the UK economy with a rebound in GDP of 0.6% QoQ in Q126, stronger than expected, which has led us to revise upwards our forecast for average annual growth by 0.3 percentage points to 1.1%.

First, we must make assumptions about the conflict in the Persian Gulf, which in turn shapeq the energy price scenario that feeds into inflation forecasts; then we must assess any second-round effects; and finally, we must map out growth trajectories. 

The succession of recent crises – the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine and now the conflict in the Middle East – has put energy back at the top of the agenda, no longer solely from an environmental perspective but as a fundamental driver of Europe’s economic power, with major implications for sovereignty and industrial competitiveness. 

Despite Donald Trump’s declarations and promises, the war with Iran rumbles on, tipping Asia’s economies into an era of uncertainty that is very difficult to manage.

China has released its Q1 growth figures, sending a clear message to the rest of the world: the Iran crisis has thus far had no impact on Chinese economic activity. Year-on-year growth came in at 5% in Q1, up from 4.5% in the final quarter of 2025. These figures beat consensus expectations, which saw growth remaining below 5%, and enabled China to make progress towards its 2026 growth target (“between 4...

Growth in the Spanish economy remains solid at the start of 2026, although it is showing signs of moderating in a more uncertain international environment. Domestic demand – underpinned by private consumption and investment – remains the main driver of economic activity, buoyed by a labour market that remains dynamic and by the impetus of public policies. At the same time, the external sector is making a...