Against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, but with the US trade fog lifting, growth rates are expected to remain steady or even pick up. Fiscal measures will contribute to this resilience in a variety of ways: from tax cuts in the US to aggressive fiscal policy in Japan, via Keynesian stimulus in the UK and spending linked to the NGEU plan on the one hand and the German recovery on the...

On 3 December 2024, South Korea was thrown into political crisis. Struggling in parliament, where he had lost his majority, President Yoon declared martial law in a move he claimed was justified by North Korean and Chinese interference. 

The immediate mass mobilisation of opposition members of parliament and civil society put a stop to this attempted power grab and paved the way for proceedings that...

India is shrouded in fog: the fog of pollution, which is making New Delhi increasingly unliveable; the fog of terrorism, with tensions with Pakistan triggering a number of attacks; and the fog of trade talks with the United States, which seem to have been at a standstill for weeks.

Against a backdrop of global growth that has been surprisingly resilient, Western European economies are showing resilience, albeit at varying rates. The economies at the core of the Eurozone, particularly Germany, are showing sluggish growth at best, while the Iberian economies are being buoyed by strong private consumption and investment, the latter supported by funds from the European Recovery and...

The past quarter has contributed to heighten uncertainty over the growth trajectories of the major economies, which are facing a global shock to confidence and a reorganisation of their relative competitiveness. The American exceptionalism of growth that has long been above potential, even under the influence of a restrictive monetary policy, has been called into question by the new trade policy, which...

There were already many risks, both economic and geopolitical, influencing our scenario, both in terms of cyclical inflections and structural aspects. Compounding these risks, Israel’s attack on Iran on 13 June constitutes an unprecedented escalation in terms of its scale and its severity. This act marks a strategic turning point for the region.

Our scenario, already rocked by recently fickle...

Economic activity declined slightly in France in Q4 2024 (-0.1% q/q), after +0.4% in Q3. This slight decline can be explained by a negative backlash after the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games (OPG), which supported activity by +0.2 percentage point (pp) in Q3. Annual growth therefore stood at 1.1% in 2024, stable compared to 2023.
In Q1 2025, growth is expected to be low but positive (+0.2% q/q), and...

The Italian economy proved resilient in 2024 in an already unpromising international environment, with better-than-expected growth of 0.7%. But in early 2025 the economic outlook is sending out more mixed signals. Consumer and business confidence is weakening and uncertainties are mounting, with persistent geopolitical tensions and threats of tariff hikes from the United States. All of which puts the...

The Spanish economy began 2025 with greater momentum than its European partners. In 2024, GDP grew by 3.2%, increasing by 0.8% in Q4, supported by consumption and investment. The fundamentals are solid: a current account surplus for the 13th year, private debt limited to 125.1% of GDP (vs. 153.5% in the eurozone) and public debt down to 101.8%. The net international investment position also improved...

A transatlantic rift has opened. It had been incorporated into our forecast last December in the form of a downward revision to growth to take account of the negative impact of the rise in tariffs on steel and aluminium to 25%, as well as an alignment of the average US tariff with that of the EU. into a downward revision to growth of 0.2 percentage points (pp) as a direct result of lower exports and a...