UK GDP growth has continued to surprise on the upside, leading us to revise our forecast for average annual growth in 2026 from 1.1% to 1.4%. 

At the turn of the 2000s, Germany was regarded as the ‘sick man’ of the euro area. Facing high unemployment rates, sluggish growth and public finances weakened by the cost of reunification, the country seemed destined for a slow relative decline. Yet, within a decade, it managed to reinvent itself to become Europe’s main economic driving force.

For nearly thirty years, Germany prioritised economic prosperity over a genuine geopolitical strategy. Its model rested on three pillars: American protection, Russian energy and Chinese markets. In a stable international environment, this framework enabled Germany to exert its influence primarily through the economy, whilst maintaining a doctrine of military restraint. However, recent geopolitical...

On September 20, 2026, Die Linke won the regional election in Berlin, a first for the radical left-wing party in the capital. The housing crisis was at the heart of Die Linke’s campaign, and this victory reflects Berliners’ frustration with skyrocketing rents and difficulties in accessing housing. The German housing market is indeed facing significant cyclical and structural constraints, which today...

After two decades of relative prosperity, Germany’s strategy based on free trade and its integration into international value chains is facing growing geo-economic fragmentation, Sino-American rivalry, the race for low-carbon technologies and the energy transition in industry. This new landscape has altered the factors determining Germany’s industrial competitiveness in the face of an increasingly...

Geopolitical events continue to shape the economic and financial outlook, primarily through energy prices.

GDP growth consolidated in Q2 at 0.2 per cent. Household consumption rose for a second consecutive quarter, driven by spending on durable goods. Rising gas and oil prices pushed inflation up again in August, whilst confidence continued to improve.

Economic activity contracted slightly in the first quarter, even though the effects of the war in the Middle East will not be felt until the second quarter.

As a matter of fact, 2026 is off to a more promising start, despite a bout of turbulence on the international stage through March. Growth has proved more dynamic than expected. The carry-over for 2026 growth has been revised upwards, and first-quarter domestic demand remains robust, in both household consumption and investment. In such a volatile geopolitical environment, avoiding the worst has become...

The Spanish economy continues to show relatively robust growth in the first half of 2026, supported by private consumption, investment and a dynamic services sector. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran is gradually undermining the macroeconomic environment, driven by rising energy prices, a slowdown in global trade and tighter financial conditions. Against this backdrop, domestic...