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Reindustrialisation – Regaining control of European value chains
Control over industrial value chains now sits at the heart of competitiveness, technological leadership and strategic sovereignty for the world's leading economies. European reindustrialisation rests on three inseparable conditions: bold strategic choices, organised cooperation despite its contradictions, and a capacity for innovation closely linked to the industry. Exploring an industrial model based on...
Spain – 2026-2027 Scenario: strong domestic demand in a deteriorating global environment
The Spanish economy continues to show relatively robust growth in the first half of 2026, supported by private consumption, investment and a dynamic services sector. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran is gradually undermining the macroeconomic environment, driven by rising energy prices, a slowdown in global trade and tighter financial conditions. Against this backdrop, domestic...
United Kingdom – 2026-2027 Scenario: the economy is set to slow under the weight of energy prices and uncertainty
The beginning of the year was encouraging for the UK economy with a rebound in GDP of 0.6% QoQ in Q126, stronger than expected, which has led us to revise upwards our forecast for average annual growth by 0.3 percentage points to 1.1%.
World – Scenario 2026-2027: Another highly contingent scenario
First, we must make assumptions about the conflict in the Persian Gulf, which in turn shapeq the energy price scenario that feeds into inflation forecasts; then we must assess any second-round effects; and finally, we must map out growth trajectories.
Money20/20: the payments industry in shock
At Money20/20, there’s a real hype around AI and agent-based technologies. Their power and potential are so significant that the payment industry is in a state of shock.
The urgent case for a truly integrated European energy system
The succession of recent crises – the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine and now the conflict in the Middle East – has put energy back at the top of the agenda, no longer solely from an environmental perspective but as a fundamental driver of Europe’s economic power, with major implications for sovereignty and industrial competitiveness.
Asia – Charting a course through the fog of Hormuz
Despite Donald Trump’s declarations and promises, the war with Iran rumbles on, tipping Asia’s economies into an era of uncertainty that is very difficult to manage.
China – Hormuz: fuelling China’s desire for autonomy
China has released its Q1 growth figures, sending a clear message to the rest of the world: the Iran crisis has thus far had no impact on Chinese economic activity. Year-on-year growth came in at 5% in Q1, up from 4.5% in the final quarter of 2025. These figures beat consensus expectations, which saw growth remaining below 5%, and enabled China to make progress towards its 2026 growth target (“between 4...
Artificial intelligence: driver of a new era of prosperity or mirage?
In previous industrial revolutions, technological breakthroughs and technological progress have been engines of prosperity, stimulating economic growth by significantly boosting productivity.