Despite Donald Trump’s declarations and promises, the war with Iran rumbles on, tipping Asia’s economies into an era of uncertainty that is very difficult to manage.

Malgré les déclarations et les promesses de Donald Trump, la guerre avec l’Iran se prolonge, et fait basculer les économies d’Asie dans une ère d’incertitudes bien délicate à gérer. 

Bien sûr, toutes les économies de la zone ne sont pas affectées avec la même ampleur par la crise : les plus avancées ne subissent pour l’instant qu’un choc de prix, tandis que les plus fragiles doivent également composer...

China has released its Q1 growth figures, sending a clear message to the rest of the world: the Iran crisis has thus far had no impact on Chinese economic activity. Year-on-year growth came in at 5% in Q1, up from 4.5% in the final quarter of 2025. These figures beat consensus expectations, which saw growth remaining below 5%, and enabled China to make progress towards its 2026 growth target (“between 4...

La Chine a publié ses chiffres de croissance du premier trimestre et envoyé un message clair au reste du monde : à ce jour, la crise iranienne n’a pas eu d’impact sur l’activité. Au premier trimestre, la croissance a atteint 5% en rythme annuel, soit une accélération par rapport aux 4,5% du dernier trimestre 2025. Ces chiffres ont surpris le consensus, qui s’attendait à rester sous la barre des 5%, et...

Growth in the Spanish economy remains solid at the start of 2026, although it is showing signs of moderating in a more uncertain international environment. Domestic demand – underpinned by private consumption and investment – remains the main driver of economic activity, buoyed by a labour market that remains dynamic and by the impetus of public policies. At the same time, the external sector is making a...

Economic activity slowed in 2025, whilst remaining resilient in a context of high uncertainty and rising trade tensions. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already resulted in higher energy prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Under the assumption of a very gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without a return to normal conditions, consumer prices would accelerate on average in...

This scenario is set against a backdrop of military, political and economic uncertainty that makes forecasting the scale of shocks and their macroeconomic impact particularly risky. But one thing is certain: the tightening of external constraints on the Eurozone, which is facing more volatile prices on global energy markets. Whilst, unlike in 2022, the risk is less one of shortages, its vulnerability to...

The powerful political and geopolitical consequences of the conflict in the Middle East will extend far beyond the more immediate ones that this scenario aims to identify. This conflict is not an isolated incident, but rather it is part of a series of supply shocks (the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, Houthi attacks) that highlight critical dependencies on a few key chokepoints (eg, commodities...

Les conséquences politiques et géopolitiques, puissantes, du conflit dans le golfe Persique s’étendront durablement bien au-delà de celles, plus immédiates, que ce scénario a pour vocation de cerner. Ce conflit ne constitue pas un accident isolé, mais s’inscrit dans une série de chocs d’offre (pandémie de Covid, guerre en Ukraine, attaques houthies) qui témoigne des dépendances critiques à quelques...