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Macroeconomic Scenario
Global panorama
26 June 2026  •  ECO Publication

World – Scenario 2026-2027: Another highly contingent scenario

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First, we must make assumptions about the conflict in the Persian Gulf, which in turn shapeq the energy price scenario that feeds into inflation forecasts; then we must assess any second-round effects; and finally, we must map out growth trajectories. 

Catherine LEBOUGRE
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Macroeconomic Scenario
Global panorama
26 June 2026  •  ECO Publication

Monde – Scénario 2026-2027 : un scénario de nouveau hautement conditionnel

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Il faut tout d’abord émettre des hypothèses sur le conflit dans le golfe persique qui, elles-mêmes, façonnent le scénario de prix de l’énergie qui, à son tour, irrigue les prévisions d’inflation ; puis il faut se prononcer sur d’éventuels effets de second tour et, enfin, tracer des profils de croissance. 

Catherine LEBOUGRE
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Macroeconomic Scenario
Italy
23 April 2026  •  ECO Publication

2026-2027 Scenario – Italy: caught between a rock and a hard place in a volatile geopolitical climate

1. Italie – Caught between a rock and a hard place in a volatile geopolitical climate

2. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS
 

Sofia TOZY
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Scénario Italie
Macroeconomic Scenario
Spain
14 April 2026  •  ECO Publication

2026-2027 Scenario – Spain: Between a global slowdown and domestic support

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Growth in the Spanish economy remains solid at the start of 2026, although it is showing signs of moderating in a more uncertain international environment. Domestic demand – underpinned by private consumption and investment – remains the main driver of economic activity, buoyed by a labour market that remains dynamic and by the impetus of public policies. At the same time, the external sector is making a...

Ticiano BRUNELLO
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ESPAGNE
Macroeconomic Scenario
France
10 April 2026  •  ECO Publication

2026-2027 Scenario – France: growth weakened by rising energy prices and renewed uncertainty

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Economic activity slowed in 2025, whilst remaining resilient in a context of high uncertainty and rising trade tensions. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already resulted in higher energy prices and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Under the assumption of a very gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without a return to normal conditions, consumer prices would accelerate on average in...

Marianne PICARD
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FRANCE
Macroeconomic Scenario
Euro Zone
07 April 2026  •  ECO Publication

2026-2027 Scenario – Euro area: Domestic factors are keeping the risk of recession at bay

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This scenario is set against a backdrop of military, political and economic uncertainty that makes forecasting the scale of shocks and their macroeconomic impact particularly risky. But one thing is certain: the tightening of external constraints on the Eurozone, which is facing more volatile prices on global energy markets. Whilst, unlike in 2022, the risk is less one of shortages, its vulnerability to...

Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI
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Scénario zone euro
Macroeconomic Scenario
Global panorama
03 April 2026  •  ECO Publication

World – Scenario 2026-2027: highly subject to change

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The powerful political and geopolitical consequences of the conflict in the Middle East will extend far beyond the more immediate ones that this scenario aims to identify. This conflict is not an isolated incident, but rather it is part of a series of supply shocks (the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, Houthi attacks) that highlight critical dependencies on a few key chokepoints (eg, commodities...

Catherine LEBOUGRE
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Macroeconomic Scenario
Global panorama
03 April 2026  •  ECO Publication

Monde – Scénario 2026-2027 : à consommer de préférence... rapidement

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Les conséquences politiques et géopolitiques, puissantes, du conflit dans le golfe Persique s’étendront durablement bien au-delà de celles, plus immédiates, que ce scénario a pour vocation de cerner. Ce conflit ne constitue pas un accident isolé, mais s’inscrit dans une série de chocs d’offre (pandémie de Covid, guerre en Ukraine, attaques houthies) qui témoigne des dépendances critiques à quelques...

Catherine LEBOUGRE
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Macroeconomic Scenario
United Kingdom
02 April 2026  •  ECO Publication

2026-2027 Scenario – United Kingdom: a new ‘stagflationary’ shock

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The UK economy, still bearing the marks of the 2022 energy crisis, is confronting a fresh external supply shock stemming from the war in the Middle East. The economic situation prior to this conflict was fragile: GDP growth was still very modest in the second half of 2025; the unemployment rate had risen; and a surge in inflation eroded the household purchasing power against a backdrop of moderating wage...

Slavena NAZAROVA
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Royaume-Uni - Scénario
Macroeconomic Scenario
Italy
02 April 2026  •  ECO Publication

Scénario 2026-2027 – Italie : Prise en tenaille dans un contexte géopolitique volatil

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L'économie italienne a terminé l'année 2025 sur une note positive avec une croissance annuelle revue à la hausse en fin d'année à +0,7% et un acquis de +0,3% laissé à 2026. Une configuration qui aurait pu laisser espérer une consolidation de l'activité après un cycle de baisse de croissance plombé par les séquelles encore présentes de la crise énergétique passée. 

La dégradation du contexte international...

Sofia TOZY
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Scénario Italie
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