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Macroeconomic Scenario
04 April 2025  •  ECO Publication

World – 2025-2026 scenario: place your bets

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Stupefaction was the reaction to Donald Trump's “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. Firstly, because the tariffs – which Trump claims are sucking the life out of the US economy – are perplexing when compared with those applied. Secondly, because the tariffs announced (including the strangely calculated reciprocal tariffs) exceed what had been anticipated and are likely to be further tightened. Finally...

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Industry
Global panorama
04 April 2025  •  ECO Publication

Monde – Scénario 2025-2026 : le temps des paris

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État de sidération, c'est ce qu'ont produit les annonces de droits de douane par D. Trump à l'occasion du "Liberation Day". Tout d'abord, parce que les tarifs douaniers censés, selon D. Trump, vampiriser l'économie américaine laissent perplexes. Ensuite, parce que les droits de douane annoncés (dont les droits réciproques étrangement calculés) excèdent ce qui avait été anticipé et sont susceptibles d...

Catherine LEBOUGRE
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France
Western Europe
06 February 2025  •  ECO Publication

France – 2025-2026 Scenario: in search of political stability, with growth weakened by uncertainty

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Economic activity in France quickened in Q3 2024, with quarterly growth coming in at 0.4%, compared with 0.2% in Q1 and Q2. This uptick is explained by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games, estimated to have added 0.2 percentage points to Q3 growth. At the end of Q3, carry-over growth for 2024 was 1.1%. 

The economy is not expected to have grown at all in Q4 2024 due to the boost from the Paris...

Marianne PICARD
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Germany
Western Europe
06 February 2025  •  ECO Publication

Germany – 2025-2026 Scenario: Europe's locomotive at a standstill

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The downward revision of our forecasts for the German economy is in line with the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% contraction in GDP in 2024. Activity in the first three quarters of 2024 was supported in particular by public consumption, despite limited budgetary resources. Household consumption, on the other hand, weighed on growth. Households switched to savings because of low consumer confidence in a...

Alberto ALEDO
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Western Europe
31 January 2025  •  ECO Publication

Eurozone – 2025-2026 Scenario: a sluggish recovery at a slower pace than potential

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Facing the relative slowdown in the US economy, growth in the Eurozone accelerated slightly over the summer, although still at a much lower rate than in the United States (0.9% year-on-year).

The upturn in household consumption seen over the summer bodes well for slightly stronger growth next year. The latest information on investment does not plead in favour of a marked acceleration. We have revised our...

Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI
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United Kingdom
Western Europe
23 January 2025  •  ECO Publication

United Kingdom – 2025-2026 Scenario: unwelcome policies in the autumn budget 2024 complicate the economic outlook

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The UK economy is on course to slow sharply in H2-24. Real GDP was stable in Q3 against our expectation for an increase (0.3% QoQ) after 0.4% QoQ in Q2. Business surveys deteriorated during Q4. Furthermore, financial conditions have tightened since the Autumn Budget 2024 and quite meaningfully so since the beginning 2025: gilt yields have risen sharply (around 60bp since October) and sterling has...

Slavena NAZAROVA
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Spain
Western Europe
22 January 2025  •  ECO Publication

Spain – 2025-2026 Scenario: Growth keeps pace

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The Spanish economy managed to maintain a robust growth rate until Q3 2024 despite multiple headwinds, including weakness in the eurozone economies, persistently high inflation and the impact of past interest rate hikes. Behind this good performance are several key factors, including the solid performance of the labour market, continued high immigration and positive international tourism data, which once...

Ticiano BRUNELLO
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Espagne – Scénario 2025-2026
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